Primera Division · Sunday, 17 May 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 56% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 65%, the draw at 21% and UCV Moquegua at 14%, from expected goals of 2.02 and 0.81.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Club Deportivo Los Chankas have 6 in 14 this season (3 of 7 at home), UCV Moquegua 11 in 14 (5 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 14 and 14 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 2.02 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas and 0.81 for UCV Moquegua. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 14 | 43% | 36% | 57% |
| UCV Moquegua | 14 | 79% | 21% | 57% |
More: Club Deportivo Los Chankas season stats · UCV Moquegua season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.