Serie A · Sunday, 17 May 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 1–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 48% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Chapecoense-sc at 42%, the draw at 26% and Remo at 32%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 1.24.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chapecoense-sc have 6 in 14 this season (5 of 8 at home), Remo 6 in 15 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Chapecoense-sc and 1.24 for Remo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 14 | 43% | 29% | 64% |
| Remo | 15 | 40% | 27% | 53% |
More: Chapecoense-sc season stats · Remo season stats · Serie A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.