Primera Nacional · Saturday, 16 May 2026. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 29% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 71% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 89% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 62% | No |
The result model puts Ciudad de Bolívar at 43%, the draw at 33% and Acassuso at 23%, from expected goals of 1.08 and 0.71.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 28% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ciudad de Bolívar have 1 in 12 this season (1 of 5 at home), Acassuso 3 in 12 (1 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 22% and 27%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 25%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 27%, from expected goals of 1.08 for Ciudad de Bolívar and 0.71 for Acassuso. Folding in 30% of that view gives 26%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 29%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciudad de Bolívar | 12 | 8% | 8% | 33% |
| Acassuso | 12 | 25% | 8% | 8% |
More: Ciudad de Bolívar season stats · Acassuso season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.