MLS · Saturday, 9 May 2026. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 61% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Chicago Fire at 60%, the draw at 21% and New York Red Bulls at 19%, from expected goals of 2.15 and 1.13.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chicago Fire have 7 in 10 this season (4 of 6 at home), New York Red Bulls 7 in 11 (4 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 68% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 2.15 for Chicago Fire and 1.13 for New York Red Bulls. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 10 | 70% | 30% | 50% |
| New York Red Bulls | 11 | 64% | 45% | 64% |
More: Chicago Fire season stats · New York Red Bulls season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.