Primera Division · Monday, 4 May 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 55% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts FBC Melgar at 61%, the draw at 21% and UTC Cajamarca at 18%, from expected goals of 2.14 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FBC Melgar have 8 in 12 this season (4 of 6 at home), UTC Cajamarca 7 in 12 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.14 for FBC Melgar and 1.1 for UTC Cajamarca. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 12 | 67% | 42% | 67% |
| UTC Cajamarca | 12 | 58% | 42% | 67% |
More: FBC Melgar season stats · UTC Cajamarca season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.