Erovnuli Liga · Saturday, 2 May 2026. Final score 1–4 (half-time 1–2). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 44% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Meshakhte at 29%, the draw at 32% and FC Iberia 1999 at 39%, from expected goals of 0.87 and 1.07.
The league sets the starting point. Erovnuli Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Meshakhte have 2 in 9 this season (0 of 4 at home), FC Iberia 1999 5 in 9 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 0.87 for Meshakhte and 1.07 for FC Iberia 1999. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meshakhte | 9 | 22% | 11% | 33% |
| FC Iberia 1999 | 9 | 56% | 11% | 44% |
More: Meshakhte season stats · FC Iberia 1999 season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.