Eliteserien · Thursday, 30 April 2026. Final score 5–0 (half-time 2–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 64% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Bodo/Glimt at 85%, the draw at 10% and Start at 5%, from expected goals of 3.14 and 0.67.
The league sets the starting point. Eliteserien has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bodo/Glimt have 3 in 5 this season (1 of 1 at home), Start 2 in 6 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 3.14 for Bodo/Glimt and 0.67 for Start. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodo/Glimt | 5 | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Start | 6 | 33% | 17% | 83% |
More: Bodo/Glimt season stats · Start season stats · Eliteserien table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.