MLS · Sunday, 26 April 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 61% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts St. Louis City at 29%, the draw at 25% and San Jose Earthquakes at 47%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 1.7.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. St. Louis City have 2 in 8 this season (1 of 3 at home), San Jose Earthquakes 5 in 9 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.28 for St. Louis City and 1.7 for San Jose Earthquakes. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City | 8 | 25% | 25% | 63% |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 9 | 56% | 33% | 33% |
More: St. Louis City season stats · San Jose Earthquakes season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.