Brasileirao (W) · Saturday, 25 April 2026. Final score 3–1 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 54% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Corinthians W at 71%, the draw at 19% and Ferroviaria W at 11%, from expected goals of 2.22 and 0.75.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Corinthians W have 5 in 7 this season (3 of 3 at home), Ferroviaria W 2 in 7 (0 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 2.22 for Corinthians W and 0.75 for Ferroviaria W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians W | 7 | 71% | 71% | 57% |
| Ferroviaria W | 7 | 29% | 14% | 57% |
More: Corinthians W season stats · Ferroviaria W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.