Erovnuli Liga · Wednesday, 22 April 2026. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–2). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 53% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Spaeri at 37%, the draw at 26% and FC Iberia 1999 at 37%, from expected goals of 1.38 and 1.38.
The league sets the starting point. Erovnuli Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Spaeri have 5 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), FC Iberia 1999 4 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.38 for Spaeri and 1.38 for FC Iberia 1999. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spaeri | 7 | 71% | 29% | 71% |
| FC Iberia 1999 | 7 | 57% | 14% | 43% |
More: Spaeri season stats · FC Iberia 1999 season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.