MLS · Sunday, 19 April 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 67% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Orlando City SC at 52%, the draw at 20% and Houston Dynamo at 28%, from expected goals of 2.49 and 1.84.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Orlando City SC have 6 in 7 this season (3 of 3 at home), Houston Dynamo 4 in 6 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 81%, from expected goals of 2.49 for Orlando City SC and 1.84 for Houston Dynamo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC | 7 | 86% | 57% | 57% |
| Houston Dynamo | 6 | 67% | 50% | 67% |
More: Orlando City SC season stats · Houston Dynamo season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.