Liga Profesional · Sunday, 12 April 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–2). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 32% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 68% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 88% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 39% | 61% | No |
The result model puts Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at 26%, the draw at 37% and Barracas Central at 37%, from expected goals of 0.67 and 0.86.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto have 2 in 12 this season (0 of 5 at home), Barracas Central 4 in 12 (1 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 33%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 27% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 32%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 20%, from expected goals of 0.67 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 0.86 for Barracas Central. Folding in 30% of that view gives 28%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 32%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 12 | 17% | 8% | 8% |
| Barracas Central | 12 | 33% | 0% | 50% |
More: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto season stats · Barracas Central season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.