Serie A · Sunday, 12 April 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 47% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Atletico Paranaense at 60%, the draw at 24% and Chapecoense-sc at 16%, from expected goals of 1.71 and 0.76.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atletico Paranaense have 6 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), Chapecoense-sc 3 in 9 (0 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.71 for Atletico Paranaense and 0.76 for Chapecoense-sc. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 10 | 60% | 20% | 60% |
| Chapecoense-sc | 9 | 33% | 33% | 56% |
More: Atletico Paranaense season stats · Chapecoense-sc season stats · Serie A table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.