Primera Nacional · Saturday, 4 April 2026. Final score 2–0 (half-time 0–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 34% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 66% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 88% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Godoy Cruz at 53%, the draw at 29% and Acassuso at 18%, from expected goals of 1.37 and 0.68.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 27% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Godoy Cruz have 1 in 6 this season (1 of 3 at home), Acassuso 3 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 25% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 29%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.37 for Godoy Cruz and 0.68 for Acassuso. Folding in 30% of that view gives 30%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 34%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godoy Cruz | 6 | 17% | 0% | 67% |
| Acassuso | 5 | 60% | 20% | 20% |
More: Godoy Cruz season stats · Acassuso season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.