Brasileirao (W) · Saturday, 4 April 2026. Final score 1–1 (half-time 1–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 58% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Botafogo W at 46%, the draw at 25% and Santos W at 30%, from expected goals of 1.67 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Botafogo W have 4 in 5 this season (2 of 3 at home), Santos W 3 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.67 for Botafogo W and 1.3 for Santos W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo W | 5 | 80% | 20% | 100% |
| Santos W | 5 | 60% | 20% | 80% |
More: Botafogo W season stats · Santos W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.