Primera Division · Saturday, 21 March 2026. Final score 3–0 (half-time 3–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 56% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Cienciano at 69%, the draw at 18% and FC Cajamarca at 13%, from expected goals of 2.45 and 0.97.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cienciano have 5 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), FC Cajamarca 3 in 7 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.45 for Cienciano and 0.97 for FC Cajamarca. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cienciano | 7 | 71% | 43% | 86% |
| FC Cajamarca | 7 | 43% | 43% | 57% |
More: Cienciano season stats · FC Cajamarca season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.