USL Championship · Saturday, 7 March 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 26% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 74% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 90% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 24% | 76% | No |
The result model puts Lexington at 24%, the draw at 27% and Louisville City at 49%, from expected goals of 0.93 and 1.46.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 0% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lexington have 0 in 0 this season, Louisville City 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 0% and 0%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 23% and 18%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 17%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 0.93 for Lexington and 1.46 for Louisville City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 25%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 22%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 26%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington | 0 | — | — | — |
| Louisville City | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Lexington season stats · Louisville City season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.