Erovnuli Liga · Monday, 2 March 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 52% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Gagra at 39%, the draw at 24% and Samgurali at 36%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 1.53.
The league sets the starting point. Erovnuli Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gagra have 0 in 0 this season, Samgurali 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 27%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.6 for Gagra and 1.53 for Samgurali. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 51%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Gagra season stats · Samgurali season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.