Users noticed our highest-rated over-2.5 calls "rarely miss". We tested the whole band: across 44,728 walk-forward predictions, calls rated 67%+ landed 68.5% against an average claim of 70.2%. Calibrated — no better, no worse.
The band-by-band table: 60-65% claims landed 61.6%; 65-67% landed 66.0%; 67-70% landed 65.8%; 70-75% landed 71.3%; 75%+ landed 77.9%. Only 3.2% of games ever reach the 67% tier, and they cluster in high-scoring leagues. The tier also has seasons: summer leagues hit 72.9% historically, winter leagues 65.0%.
Two honest warnings ship with the star badge this study created. First, streaks happen: the historical record contains six consecutive misses inside the 67%+ band — that is what 70% looks like sometimes, not a broken model. Second, confidence is not value: a true 70% chance at odds implying 74% is a bad bet however safe it feels. The edge column, not the probability, is the value signal.
Method: walk-forward testing — every prediction is made using only information available before kick-off, then graded against what happened. Studies run June-July 2026 on the site's own dataset. Questions: contact us.