Three pieces of football folklore, tested on our own data.
Travel: across 13,380 matches in big-travel leagues, away trips of 2,000km+ cost the travelling side 3-4 points of win probability — but goals markets were unaffected, and a model adjustment failed validation. In European competition the pattern repeats: away sides travelling 2,500km+ won 31.2% of ties — identical to short trips. Distance moves who wins, not how many goals.
Breaks: on 105,000 matches, a 3-game over/under streak carries about ±4.6 points of signal with normal rest — and reverts fully to baseline after a 28-day break. A returning team's streak is dead information, which is why our fixture pages flag long breaks and why season openers get a measured 2.7-point under-adjustment (2,727 openers studied).
The European hangover: across 4,793 league games played within five days of a European tie, the effect was zero — +0.6 points on over 2.5, -0.1 on win rate. The one suggestive pocket: a 2,000km+ European away trip followed by three days' rest or fewer showed a modest dip (about -4 points on overs), short of statistical proof. We flag it as information and leave the ratings alone. Playing Thursday is not an excuse; flying home from Kazakhstan on Friday might be, slightly.
Method: walk-forward testing — every prediction is made using only information available before kick-off, then graded against what happened. Studies run June-July 2026 on the site's own dataset. Questions: contact us.