Copa Argentina · Saturday, 14 November 2026 · 22:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Banfield vs Boca Juniors (Copa Argentina, Saturday, 14 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with Banfield 23%, the draw 24% and Boca Juniors 53%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | – |
| Both teams to score | 44% | No |
| Banfield win | 23% | |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Boca Juniors win | 53% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 61% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 72% | |
| Goal in both halves | 45% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banfield | 30 | 43% | 20% | 57% |
| Boca Juniors | 30 | 40% | 17% | 53% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 61% | 60% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 24% | 21% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 72% | 71% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 38% | 34% |
| Goal in both halves | 45% | 44% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banfield | 64% | 76% | 50 |
| Boca Juniors | 64% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 61% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Banfield season stats · Boca Juniors season stats · Copa Argentina fixtures
League. Copa Argentina has had over 2.5 goals in 35% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Banfield 13 of 30 (5 of 15 at home), Boca Juniors 12 of 30 (9 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 40% and 38%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 40% and 37%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 38%.
Head to head. 3 meetings in 3 years, 33% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 38%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.07 (Banfield) v 1.77 (Boca Juniors) give 54%; 30% weight: 43%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 44%.
Cup tie. Cup games have produced more goals than league form suggests: 47%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.