Women's Champions League · Tuesday, 10 November 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Women's Champions League average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Häcken W at 52%, the draw at 24% and Chelsea W at 24%, from expected goals of 2.21 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. Women's Champions League has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Häcken W have 17 in 22 this season (8 of 11 at home), Chelsea W 3 in 6 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 22 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 2.21 for Häcken W and 1.22 for Chelsea W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Häcken W | 22 | 77% | 45% | 41% |
| Chelsea W | 6 | 50% | 33% | 33% |
More: Women's Champions League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.