FA Cup · Monday, 9 November 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The FA Cup average is 50%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts Plymouth Parkway at 44%, the draw at 27% and Berkhamsted at 30%, from expected goals of 1.45 and 1.15.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Plymouth Parkway have 0 in 0 this season, Berkhamsted 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.45 for Plymouth Parkway and 1.15 for Berkhamsted. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth Parkway | 0 | — | — | — |
| Berkhamsted | 0 | — | — | — |
Our numbers give this match a 73% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 40% of two or more. The FA Cup rates, last season and this season combined, are 74% and 41%. After the break: 88% for a goal and 58% for two or more (league 85% and 55%). Plymouth Parkway's last 15 games had a first-half goal 60% of the time and a second-half goal 100%; Berkhamsted's last 13, 77% and 92%. A goal in both halves: 64% (league 64%). Highest-scoring half: second 47%, first 29%, level 24% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: FA Cup and every competition we cover. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.