FA Cup · Sunday, 8 November 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The FA Cup average is 47%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | no pick |
The result model puts Wimborne Town at 55%, the draw at 24% and Crawley Town at 21%, from expected goals of 1.73 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Wimborne Town have 0 in 0 this season, Crawley Town 6 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.73 for Wimborne Town and 0.95 for Crawley Town. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 45%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wimborne Town | 0 | — | — | — |
| Crawley Town | 10 | 60% | 40% | 70% |
Our numbers give this match a 65% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 33% of two or more. The FA Cup rates, last season and this season combined, are 67% and 33%. After the break: 77% for a goal and 40% for two or more (league 78% and 43%). Wimborne Town's last 14 games had a first-half goal 50% of the time and a second-half goal 64%; Crawley Town's last 50, 64% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 51% (league 53%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 28%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Crawley Town season stats · FA Cup and every competition we cover. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.