FAI Cup · Sunday, 8 November 2026 · 15:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Derry City vs Waterford (FAI Cup, Sunday, 8 November 2026) 57% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with Derry City 59%, the draw 22% and Waterford 20%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| Derry City win | 59% | Pick |
| Draw | 22% | |
| Waterford win | 20% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | |
| Goal in both halves | 60% |
In the app: live scores, every market including half-time goals, sortable tables and a slip you can share.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 35 | 49% | 29% | 60% |
| Waterford | 35 | 51% | 43% | 63% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | 72% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 33% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | 72% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 43% | 41% |
| Goal in both halves | 60% | 53% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 41% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 74% | 78% | 50 |
| Waterford | 84% | 80% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 74% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Derry City season stats · Waterford season stats · FAI Cup fixtures
League. FAI Cup has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Derry City 17 of 35 (9 of 18 at home), Waterford 18 of 35 (10 of 17 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 48% and 50%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 48% and 51%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Head to head. 12 meetings in 3 years, 83% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 51%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.05 (Derry City) v 1.09 (Waterford) give 61%; 30% weight: 54%.
Cup tie. Cup games have produced more goals than league form suggests: 57%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.