FA Cup · Saturday, 7 November 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The FA Cup average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Peterborough at 31%, the draw at 25% and Reading at 44%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 1.64.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Peterborough have 5 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), Reading 6 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.33 for Peterborough and 1.64 for Reading. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough | 10 | 50% | 30% | 50% |
| Reading | 10 | 60% | 50% | 60% |
More: Peterborough season stats · Reading season stats · FA Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.