FA Cup · Saturday, 7 November 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The FA Cup average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Kidderminster Harriers at 20%, the draw at 27% and Doncaster at 53%, from expected goals of 1.34 and 0.91.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kidderminster Harriers have 4 in 13 this season (0 of 7 at home), Doncaster 4 in 9 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 46% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.34 for Kidderminster Harriers and 0.91 for Doncaster. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 2 divisions apart, so the rating moves to 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kidderminster Harriers | 13 | 31% | 23% | 46% |
| Doncaster | 9 | 44% | 22% | 56% |
More: Kidderminster Harriers season stats · Doncaster season stats · FA Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.