FA Cup · Saturday, 7 November 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The FA Cup average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Harrogate Town at 52%, the draw at 22% and AFC Fylde at 26%, from expected goals of 1.58 and 1.77.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Harrogate Town have 10 in 13 this season (7 of 7 at home), AFC Fylde 9 in 13 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.58 for Harrogate Town and 1.77 for AFC Fylde. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate Town | 13 | 77% | 54% | 69% |
| AFC Fylde | 13 | 69% | 46% | 69% |
More: Harrogate Town season stats · AFC Fylde season stats · FA Cup and every competition we cover. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.