FA Cup · Saturday, 7 November 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The FA Cup average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Chesterfield at 57%, the draw at 23% and Yeovil Town at 20%, from expected goals of 1.48 and 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chesterfield have 6 in 12 this season (2 of 6 at home), Yeovil Town 8 in 13 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.48 for Chesterfield and 1.33 for Yeovil Town. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 12 | 50% | 25% | 67% |
| Yeovil Town | 13 | 62% | 46% | 69% |
More: Chesterfield season stats · Yeovil Town season stats · FA Cup and every competition we cover. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.