FA Cup · Saturday, 7 November 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 73% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The FA Cup average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 27% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Boreham Wood at 35%, the draw at 26% and Wigan at 39%, from expected goals of 2.3 and 0.9.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Boreham Wood have 11 in 13 this season (6 of 6 at home), Wigan 3 in 9 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.3 for Boreham Wood and 0.9 for Wigan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 2 divisions apart, so the rating moves to 73%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood | 13 | 85% | 46% | 77% |
| Wigan | 9 | 33% | 33% | 22% |
More: Boreham Wood season stats · Wigan season stats · FA Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.