Ratings updated 00:10 UK time · refreshed several times a day
Primeira Liga · Saturday, 7 November 2026 · 18:00 UK

Alverca vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats

73%Over 1.5 goals· very likely
78%Alverca, league games
60%Casa Pia, league games
75%league
52%Under 2.5 goals· close call
44%Alverca, league games
70%Casa Pia, league games
43%league
28%Over 3.5 goals· no prediction: under our 45% bar
44%Alverca, league games
20%Casa Pia, league games
34%league
52%Both teams to score: No· close call
33%Alverca, league games
80%Casa Pia, league games
50%league
36%Alverca win· close call
36%Alverca
32%Draw
32%Casa Pia

The model reads goals, not team news.

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CompactStats rates Alverca vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga, Saturday, 7 November 2026) 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with Alverca 36%, the draw 32% and Casa Pia 32%.

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Form this season

Alverca

Over 2.5 this season · league games
All (9)56%
Home (5)40%
Away (4)75%
Home games (5)
Last 5●●●●●● = went over 2.5
ForAgainst
Goals a game1.01.2
Won 1 · drew 2 · lost 2 · both scored in 60%

Casa Pia

Over 2.5 this season · league games
All (10)30%
Home (5)40%
Away (5)20%
Away games (5)
Last 5●●●●●● = went over 2.5
ForAgainst
Goals a game0.80.8
Won 2 · drew 1 · lost 2 · both scored in 20%

Latest results

Alverca

24 OctHArouca PrimL0–1
18 OctATondela TaçaD0–0
12 OctAFamalicao PrimW1–4
19 SeptHRio Ave PrimW1–0
12 SeptANacional PrimW1–3
5 SeptHSC Braga PrimL1–2

Casa Pia

30 OctHSporting CP PrimL0–2
24 OctAEstrela PrimW0–2
18 OctAAlpendorada TaçaW0–1
10 OctHSanta Clara PrimL0–1
20 SeptAEstoril PrimW1–2
12 SeptHFC Porto PrimL1–4

First and second half

This gameAlvercaCasa PiaLeague
Goal in the 1st half69%72%66%70%
Goal in the 2nd half79%80%76%79%
Goal in both halves55%56%54%55%

Half with most goals: 2nd half 43% this game (league: 2nd half 44%).

This game = our chance. Alverca: last 50 games, Casa Pia: last 50 games, every competition. League = last season and this season.

Head to head

12 Apr 26Alverca 3–1 Casa PiaO2.5
29 Nov 25Casa Pia 0–2 AlvercaU2.5

More: Alverca season stats · Casa Pia season stats · Primeira Liga table and form

Built from both teams’ form this season, last season’s record and the league’s level, plus a goal model, checked against real results.

What our percentages mean

They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.