FA Cup · Saturday, 7 November 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 70% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The FA Cup average is 55%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Altrincham at 23%, the draw at 24% and Notts County at 53%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.06.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Altrincham have 10 in 13 this season (6 of 6 at home), Notts County 3 in 10 (1 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Altrincham and 1.06 for Notts County. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 2 divisions apart, so the rating moves to 70%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham | 13 | 77% | 31% | 69% |
| Notts County | 10 | 30% | 10% | 60% |
More: Altrincham season stats · Notts County season stats · FA Cup and every competition we cover. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.