FA Cup · Friday, 6 November 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The FA Cup average is 53%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | no pick |
The result model puts Oxford City at 44%, the draw at 26% and Leicester at 30%, from expected goals of 1.5 and 1.2.
The league sets the starting point. FA Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Oxford City have 0 in 0 this season, Leicester 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.5 for Oxford City and 1.2 for Leicester. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford City | 0 | — | — | — |
| Leicester | 0 | — | — | — |
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 37% of two or more. The FA Cup rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 35%. After the break: 80% for a goal and 48% for two or more (league 77% and 44%). Oxford City's last 13 games had a first-half goal 62% of the time and a second-half goal 100%; Leicester's last 50, 76% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 58% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 31%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Leicester season stats · FA Cup and every competition we cover. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.