Conference League · Thursday, 5 November 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Conference League average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Trabzonspor at 53%, the draw at 26% and SC Freiburg at 21%, from expected goals of 2.4 and 0.86.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Trabzonspor have 5 in 7 this season (3 of 3 at home), SC Freiburg 5 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.4 for Trabzonspor and 0.86 for SC Freiburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | 7 | 71% | 29% | 43% |
| SC Freiburg | 6 | 83% | 50% | 67% |
More: Conference League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.