Sturm Graz v Celje — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Europa League · Thursday, 5 November 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Europa League average is 59%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Sturm Graz at 34%, the draw at 30% and Celje at 36%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 1.39.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Sturm Graz have 4 in 9 this season (2 of 4 at home), Celje 4 in 11 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 52%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 61%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.28 for Sturm Graz and 1.39 for Celje. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Europa League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.