Ratings updated 08:07 UK time · refreshed several times a day
Serie A · Thursday, 5 November 2026 · 00:30 UK

Sao Paulo vs Corinthians: prediction and stats

72%Over 1.5 goals· our call
79%Sao Paulo, league games
69%Corinthians, league games
75%league
Corinthians Over 1.5 in 6 straight away
53%Under 2.5 goals· our call
55%Sao Paulo, league games
57%Corinthians, league games
51%league
Corinthians Over 2.5 in 4 straight away
22%Over 3.5 goals· no pick: under our 45% bar
12%Sao Paulo, league games
17%Corinthians, league games
25%league
53%Both teams to score: Yes· our call
60%Sao Paulo, league games
52%Corinthians, league games
54%league
Corinthians BTTS in 6 straight away
Corinthians BTTS in 5 consecutive matches (all venues)
52%Sao Paulo win· most likely result
52%Sao Paulo
28%Draw
21%Corinthians

The model reads goals, not team news.

CompactStats rates Sao Paulo vs Corinthians (Serie A, Thursday, 5 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with Sao Paulo 52%, the draw 28% and Corinthians 21%.

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Form this season

Sao Paulo

Over 2.5 this season · league games
All (42)45%
Home (20)45%
Away (22)45%
Home games (20)
Last 5●●●●●● = went over 2.5
ForAgainst
Goals a game1.60.8
Won 13 · drew 3 · lost 4 · both scored in 55%

Corinthians

Over 2.5 this season · league games
All (42)43%
Home (20)40%
Away (22)45%
Away games (22)
Last 5●●●●●● = went over 2.5
ForAgainst
Goals a game1.01.4
Won 5 · drew 7 · lost 10 · both scored in 64%

Latest results

Sao Paulo

24 OctAMirassol SerAD1–1
18 OctHVasco DA Gama SerAW1–0
11 OctHVitoria SerAW2–1
8 OctACruzeiro SerAL2–0
3 OctHSantos SerAL1–2
20 SeptHInternacional SerAW1–0

Corinthians

24 OctAVasco DA Gama SerAL3–2
20 OctHVitoria SerAD1–1
11 OctAPalmeiras SerAL4–1
7 OctAInternacional SerAL2–1
20 SeptHFluminense SerAL1–3
17 SeptHEstudiantes L.P. LibtdrsL0–1

First and second half

This gameSao PauloCorinthiansLeague
Goal in the 1st half68%66%58%72%
Goal in the 2nd half77%84%72%77%
Goal in both halves50%54%40%56%

Half with most goals: 2nd half 45% this game (league: 2nd half 43%).

This game = our chance. Sao Paulo: last 50 games, Corinthians: last 50 games, every competition. League = last season and this season.

Head to head

10 May 26Corinthians 3–2 Sao PauloO2.5
18 Jan 26Corinthians 1–1 Sao PauloU2.5
20 Nov 25Corinthians 3–1 Sao PauloO2.5
20 Jul 25Sao Paulo 2–0 CorinthiansU2.5
26 Jan 25Sao Paulo 3–1 CorinthiansO2.5
29 Sept 24Sao Paulo 3–1 CorinthiansO2.5

More: Sao Paulo season stats · Corinthians season stats · Serie A table and form

Built from both teams’ form this season, last season’s record and the league’s level, plus a goal model, checked against real results.

What our percentages mean

They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.

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