Europa League · Thursday, 5 November 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Europa League average is 59%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts NEC Nijmegen at 22%, the draw at 25% and Omonia Nicosia at 53%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 2.9.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. NEC Nijmegen have 7 in 9 this season (4 of 5 at home), Omonia Nicosia 3 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 66% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 78%, from expected goals of 1.2 for NEC Nijmegen and 2.9 for Omonia Nicosia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 78% | 56% | 89% |
| Omonia Nicosia | 5 | 60% | 40% | 40% |
More: Europa League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.