Conference League · Thursday, 5 November 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Conference League average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Mjallby AIF at 28%, the draw at 30% and Borac Banja Luka at 42%, from expected goals of 0.9 and 1.5.
The league sets the starting point. Conference League has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Mjallby AIF have 11 in 24 this season (5 of 12 at home), Borac Banja Luka 4 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 24 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 0.9 for Mjallby AIF and 1.5 for Borac Banja Luka. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjallby AIF | 24 | 46% | 25% | 50% |
| Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 44% | 33% | 44% |
More: Conference League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.