Europa League · Thursday, 5 November 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Europa League average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Levski Sofia at 51%, the draw at 28% and Jagiellonia at 21%, from expected goals of 2.02 and 0.69.
The league sets the starting point. Europa League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Levski Sofia have 6 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), Jagiellonia 6 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 2.02 for Levski Sofia and 0.69 for Jagiellonia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 10 | 60% | 20% | 40% |
| Jagiellonia | 10 | 60% | 30% | 60% |
More: Europa League fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.