Ratings updated 23:03 UK time · refreshed several times a day
Serie A · Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · 22:30 UK

Flamengo vs Gremio: prediction and stats

76%Over 1.5 goals· our call
88%Flamengo, league games
72%Gremio, league games
75%league
52%Over 2.5 goals· our call
64%Flamengo, league games
44%Gremio, league games
49%league
26%Over 3.5 goals· no pick: under our 45% bar
21%Flamengo, league games
19%Gremio, league games
25%league
51%Both teams to score: Yes· our call
50%Flamengo, league games
59%Gremio, league games
54%league
72%Flamengo win· most likely result
72%Flamengo
19%Draw
9%Gremio

The model reads goals, not team news.

CompactStats rates Flamengo vs Gremio (Serie A, Wednesday, 4 November 2026) 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Flamengo 72%, the draw 19% and Gremio 9%.

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Form this season

Flamengo

Over 2.5 this season · league games
All (42)64%
Home (20)55%
Away (22)73%
Home games (20)
Last 5●●●●●● = went over 2.5
ForAgainst
Goals a game2.20.7
Won 15 · drew 4 · lost 1 · both scored in 45%

Gremio

Over 2.5 this season · league games
All (32)44%
Home (16)50%
Away (16)38%
Away games (16)
Last 5●●●●●● = went over 2.5
ForAgainst
Goals a game0.61.4
Won 1 · drew 5 · lost 10 · both scored in 50%

Latest results

Flamengo

26 OctHAtletico-MG SerAW3–2
23 OctHEstudiantes L.P. LibtdrsD0–0
18 OctABahia SerAW0–3
16 OctAEstudiantes L.P. LibtdrsD0–0
11 OctHFluminense SerAW1–0
8 OctASantos SerAD2–2

Gremio

26 OctACoritiba SerAW0–1
18 OctHCruzeiro SerAL2–4
11 OctHInternacional SerAD1–1
7 OctARemo SerAD1–1
20 SeptHPalmeiras SerAD0–0
16 SeptABotafogo SerAL3–2

First and second half

This gameFlamengoGremioLeague
Goal in the 1st half69%66%64%72%
Goal in the 2nd half79%90%78%77%
Goal in both halves57%62%54%56%

Half with most goals: 2nd half 45% this game (league: 2nd half 43%).

This game = our chance. Flamengo: last 50 games, Gremio: last 50 games, every competition. League = last season and this season.

Head to head

10 May 26Gremio 0–1 FlamengoU2.5
31 Aug 25Flamengo 1–1 GremioU2.5
13 Apr 25Gremio 0–2 FlamengoU2.5
22 Sept 24Gremio 3–2 FlamengoO2.5
14 Jun 24Flamengo 2–1 GremioO2.5
26 Oct 23Gremio 3–2 FlamengoO2.5

More: Flamengo season stats · Gremio season stats · Serie A table and form

Built from both teams’ form this season, last season’s record and the league’s level, plus a goal model, checked against real results.

What our percentages mean

They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.

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