AFC Champions · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 07:45. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The AFC Champions average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | no pick |
The result model puts Newcastle Jets at 37%, the draw at 24% and SHANGHAI SIPG at 39%, from expected goals of 2.01 and 2.1.
The league sets the starting point. AFC Champions has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Newcastle Jets have 1 in 1 this season, SHANGHAI SIPG 17 in 28 (9 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 28 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 78%, from expected goals of 2.01 for Newcastle Jets and 2.1 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Jets | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| SHANGHAI SIPG | 28 | 61% | 36% | 68% |
More: AFC Champions fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.