AFC Champions · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 18:15. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The AFC Champions average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Al-Gharafa at 20%, the draw at 24% and Al-Qadisiyah FC at 56%, from expected goals of 0.96 and 2.16.
The league sets the starting point. AFC Champions has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al-Gharafa have 4 in 6 this season (2 of 4 at home), Al-Qadisiyah FC 6 in 9 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 62% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 0.96 for Al-Gharafa and 2.16 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa | 6 | 67% | 50% | 67% |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC | 9 | 67% | 56% | 56% |
More: AFC Champions fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.