A Lyga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 12:15 UK time
CompactStats rates Suduva Marijampole vs Banga (A Lyga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with Suduva Marijampole 41%, the draw 34% and Banga 26%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | – |
| Both teams to score | 45% | No |
| Suduva Marijampole win | 41% | |
| Draw | 34% | Pick |
| Banga win | 26% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 51% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suduva Marijampole | 32 | 50% | 19% | 50% |
| Banga | 31 | 45% | 26% | 39% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 29% | 32% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 45% | 46% |
| Goal in both halves | 51% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suduva Marijampole | 56% | 72% | 50 |
| Banga | 60% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 69% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Suduva Marijampole season stats · Banga season stats · A Lyga table and form
League. A Lyga has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Suduva Marijampole 16 of 32 (5 of 15 at home), Banga 14 of 31 (5 of 16 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 51% and 48%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 51% and 47%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 50%.
Head to head. 12 meetings in 3 years, 25% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 48%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.02 (Suduva Marijampole) v 0.74 (Banga) give 26%; 30% weight: 42%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 44%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.