1. Division · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 16:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Stromsgodset vs Moss (1. Division, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 72% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with Stromsgodset 77%, the draw 14% and Moss 10%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 64% | Yes |
| Stromsgodset win | 77% | Pick |
| Draw | 14% | |
| Moss win | 10% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 76% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 89% | |
| Goal in both halves | 68% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stromsgodset | 27 | 67% | 52% | 63% |
| Moss | 27 | 81% | 48% | 78% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 76% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 44% | 43% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 89% | 88% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 61% | 60% |
| Goal in both halves | 68% | 69% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stromsgodset | 74% | 94% | 50 |
| Moss | 78% | 84% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 78% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Stromsgodset season stats · Moss season stats · 1. Division table and form
League. 1. Division has had over 2.5 goals in 67% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Stromsgodset 18 of 27 (10 of 14 at home), Moss 22 of 27 (13 of 14 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 67% and 74%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 69% and 73%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 70%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.99 (Stromsgodset) v 1.01 (Moss) give 76%; 30% weight: 72%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.