Ligue 1 · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 14:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Strasbourg vs Auxerre (Ligue 1, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with Strasbourg 55%, the draw 22% and Auxerre 23%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | – |
| Both teams to score | 56% | Yes |
| Strasbourg win | 55% | Pick |
| Draw | 22% | |
| Auxerre win | 23% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 58% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | 7 | 86% | 43% | 86% |
| Auxerre | 7 | 86% | 71% | 86% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 47% |
| Goal in both halves | 58% | 57% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | 78% | 82% | 50 |
| Auxerre | 66% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 72% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Strasbourg season stats · Auxerre season stats · Ligue 1 table and form
League. Ligue 1 has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Strasbourg 6 of 7 (2 of 3 at home), Auxerre 6 of 7 (4 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 61% and 61%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 60% and 51%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 55%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 55%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.06 (Strasbourg) v 1.28 (Auxerre) give 65%; 30% weight: 58%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.