Ligue 1 · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 16:15 UK time
CompactStats rates Paris FC vs Monaco (Ligue 1, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with Paris FC 42%, the draw 24% and Monaco 34%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | – |
| Both teams to score | 56% | Yes |
| Paris FC win | 42% | Pick |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Monaco win | 34% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 56% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 50% | 47% |
| Goal in both halves | 56% | 57% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 47% | 2nd 47% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 72% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Paris FC season stats · Monaco season stats · Ligue 1 table and form
League. Ligue 1 has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Paris FC 4 of 7 (3 of 4 at home), Monaco 3 of 7 (1 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 55% and 52%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 55% and 58%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 56%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 56%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.7 (Paris FC) v 1.49 (Monaco) give 62%; 30% weight: 58%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.