Copa do Brasil · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Copa do Brasil average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Palmeiras at 58%, the draw at 25% and Vasco DA Gama at 17%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 0.76.
The league sets the starting point. Copa do Brasil has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Palmeiras have 15 in 31 this season (7 of 15 at home), Vasco DA Gama 17 in 30 (8 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 31 and 30 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.62 for Palmeiras and 0.76 for Vasco DA Gama. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 49%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 31 | 48% | 26% | 55% |
| Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 57% | 23% | 60% |
More: Palmeiras season stats · Vasco DA Gama season stats · Copa do Brasil fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.