Liga Pro · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 21:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Mushuc Runa SC vs Manta FC (Liga Pro, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Mushuc Runa SC 56%, the draw 24% and Manta FC 20%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Mushuc Runa SC win | 56% | Pick |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Manta FC win | 20% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mushuc Runa SC | 33 | 48% | 33% | 61% |
| Manta FC | 34 | 29% | 15% | 32% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 33% | 31% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 74% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 33% | 38% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mushuc Runa SC | 68% | 68% | 50 |
| Manta FC | 64% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 65% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Mushuc Runa SC season stats · Manta FC season stats · Liga Pro table and form
League. Liga Pro has had over 2.5 goals in 44% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Mushuc Runa SC 16 of 33 (5 of 16 at home), Manta FC 10 of 34 (7 of 16 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 47% and 35%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 47% and 37%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 42%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 43%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.75 (Mushuc Runa SC) v 0.95 (Manta FC) give 51%; 30% weight: 45%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 47%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.