Bookmaker chances have the margin removed. The model reads goals, not team news.
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CompactStats rates Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Beer Sheva (Ligat Ha'al, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 64% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with Maccabi Petah Tikva 11%, the draw 16% and Hapoel Beer Sheva 73%.
Built from both teams’ form this season, last season’s record and the league’s level, plus a goal model, checked against real results.
About the odds
Market
Price
Bookmaker %
Our chance
Diff
Over 2.5 goals
1.44
67%
64%
-2
Under 2.5 goals
2.70
33%
36%
+2
Both teams to score
1.67
56%
60%
+4
Bookmaker % has the bookmaker's margin removed, so it compares directly with our chance. Diff is the gap in points: plus means we rate the outcome likelier than the price does. It is not value or a tip: when we disagree, the bookmaker has usually been right. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from one bookmaker, last checked at 09:05 UK time on Thu 29 Oct, and move all the time.
What our percentages mean
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.