Liga Pro · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 21:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Macara vs Barcelona SC (Liga Pro, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 42% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with Macara 41%, the draw 31% and Barcelona SC 28%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | – |
| Both teams to score | 50% | No |
| Macara win | 41% | Pick |
| Draw | 31% | |
| Barcelona SC win | 28% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macara | 33 | 48% | 15% | 48% |
| Barcelona SC | 32 | 34% | 3% | 53% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 67% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 27% | 31% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 36% | 38% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macara | 66% | 72% | 50 |
| Barcelona SC | 68% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 65% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Macara season stats · Barcelona SC season stats · Liga Pro table and form
League. Liga Pro has had over 2.5 goals in 44% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Macara 16 of 33 (8 of 16 at home), Barcelona SC 11 of 32 (5 of 16 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 47% and 38%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 45% and 40%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 42%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 43%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.15 (Macara) v 0.9 (Barcelona SC) give 34%; 30% weight: 40%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 42%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.